Category Archives: Bets

Betting Trends at Wimbledon: Analyzing Top Seed Losses

Before the year 2000 you would have to go back to 1962 to find a player out of the top 5 seeding in the ladies tournament that won. Since and including 2000 there have only been 10 players that were within the top 5 seeding that have won the ladies tournament. Where did these players fall by the wayside and what odds on the exchange could you lay them off at?
2024 saw 31 seed Krejcikova winning the tournament with a 2-1 victory over 7 seed Paolini, but the top 10 seeds started falling out in the 1st round with the dismissal of Zheng and Vondrousova with sportsbook odds of 1.17 and 1.13 respectively. Round 2 saw 5 seed Pegula lose to unseeded Wang, her sportsbook odds were 1.25. The third round was a disaster for the seeded players with 1 seed Swiatek (Odds 1.08), 9 seed Sakkari (Odds 2.2) , and 10 seed Jabeur (Odds 1.5) all crashing out. This left just 4 of the top 10 seeded players progressing into the 4th round which also saw casualties in the form of 2 seed Gauff (Odds 1.29) and 11 seed Collins (Odds 1.44). (I have included Collins at 11 seed because No 3 seed Sabalenka withdrew before round 1 and did not play in the tournament). Both remaining top 10 seeded players, seed 4 Rybakina and seed 7 Paolini made it safely through the quarter finals but the semi finals were the limit for seed 4 Rybakini (Odds 1.2) who lost to eventual winner Krejcikova. As mentioned before Paolini was the last of the top 10 seeds to fall and became tournament runner up with match odds of 2.2.

The implications of these events warrant some serious investigation into either backing the underdog at sportsbook odds if you haven’t got an exchange account or laying the seeded player on the exchanges.

2024 Round 1 Matches

Wimbledon 1st round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The table above shows the results and profit had you backed the underdog with Bet365 sportsbook for a £1.00 level stake. As you can see your profit would have been £1.00

Wimbledon 1st round matches laying the top 10 seeded players.

This second table shows the results and profit achieved when laying the top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability at the exchange with a 0% commission If you factor in a 2% commission then the profit would be £3.02 instead of £3.25.

2024 2nd Round Matches

Wimbledon 2nd Round Backing the Underdog at £1.00 Level Stakes

In the 2nd round just 1 seeded player was knocked out and the “underdog” for the match was Wang Xin who was 3/1. Total stakes for round 2 was £8.00 producing, after Wangs’ win, a total loss of £4.00. This brings our total P/L for the tournament if we were backing the opponent of the top 10 seeded players to -£3.00.

Wimbledon 2nd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players for a £1.00 liability

This table above shows the results if we had laid the remaining top 10 seed players. Our loss after 2% commission would be £3.74 giving a total loss of £3.72

2024 3rd Round Matches.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches Backing the underdog for a £1.00 level Stake

2024s’ 3rd round saw 3 of the top ten seeded players get knocked out including No 1 seed Swiatek which produced the highest individual profit of £7.00. The overall profit for round 3 backing the underdogs at Bet365 was £5.30 giving us an overall tournament profit of £2.30.

Wimbledon 3rd round matches laying the remaining top 10 seeded players to £1.00 liability

The dismissal of 3 of the remaining 7 top 10 seeded players has put our P/L back into the black with a 3rd round profit of £5.71 before commission deduction. With this factored in the 3rd round profit is £5.51 giving a tournament profit of £1.79

2024 4th Round Matches

Wimbledon 4th round matches backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

The dismissal of both Gauff and Collins in round 4 would have given us a level stake profit of £2.50 backing the underdog at Bet365 the retirement of both Keys and Kalinskaya ensured safe passage to the Quarter Finals of the remaining 2 top ten seeds Paolini and Rybakina. With these two wins in this round our total tournament profit for backing the underdog now stands at £4.80.

Wimbledon 4th round matches laying the remaining 4 top 10 seeds to a liability of £1.00.

Laying players at such short odds at the exchange has paid off in this round giving us an after commission profit of £3.10 adding to our tournament profit giving a total of £4.89

2024 Quarter Finals

Both of the remaining top 10 seeded players made it safely through to the semi finals reducing our Level stake profit when backing the underdog to £2.80. Laying the seeded players also had the same effect on our laying to a liability profit to £2.89 after commission.

2024 Semi Finals

Wimbledon 2024 Semi Final Matches showing the backing of the underdog at £1.00 level stakes

Paolini triumphed in her semi final match against unseeded Vekic but backing Krejcikova to win against Rybakina paid dividends producing an overall semi final profit to £1.00 level stakes at Bet365 of £2.0 giving us an overall tournament profit with just the final to play of £5.30.

Semi final matches involving the remaining 2 top ten seeded players when laying to a £1.00 liability.

Again laying the seeded player instead of backing the underdog produced a greater profit before 25 commission was deducted even with the commission subtracted the profit is £3.28 giving a total tournament profit with just the final to play of £6.17

2024 The Final.

The Final for Wimbledon 2024 where 31 seed Krejcikova beat 7th Seed Paolini 3/6 6/3 6/4

Backing the “Underdog” in the final at Bet365 produced a profit of 73p which when added to our tournament total for backing the underdog at £1.00 level stakes has given us a tournament grand total of £6.03

Laying the seeded player paid off again giving a small profit after commission of 78p

Laying the no 7 seed Paolini at odds of 2.25 has seemed the only sensible bet in the tournament given the odds of the eventual winner, Krejcikova, of 1.8 at the exchange. A profit of 78p was achieved after the reduction of 2% commission and when added to the tournament total for laying each and every one of the top ten seeded players produced an overall profit of £6.95. This is 92p more than backing the underdog at a sportsbook.

Analysis of the tournament.

Without doubt had we laid the top ten seeded players then our profit would have been more than backing the underdog at the bookmaker. However there is the fact that bookmakers need to create at least a 7% overound and we may well have benefited more by backing the underdog at an exchange especially if you have a promotional 0% commission. Without the top seeds falling by the wayside early on in the tournament the profit would have been less or even a loss might have occurred, certainly our profit was boosted by the single fact that Swiatek crashed out in the 3rd round!
Overall a success and in fact a low risk strategy. Laying to a liability of just £1.00 means that we can monitor and control any losses. We can make the lay bets in the knowledge that if we start with a small bank of just £10 and not let any emotion enter into our decisions we can keep this strategy fun.

How the seeded players faired in previous years.

2023

Top 10 Seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.19)
Sabalenka – Lost in Semi Finals (Odds 1.7)
Rybakina – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.71)
Pegula – Lost in Quarter Finals (Odds 1.76)
Garcia – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 2.05)
Jabeur – Lost in The Final (Odds 1.5)
Gauff – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.34)
Sakkari – Lost in round 1 (Odds 1.36)
Kvitova -Lost in Round 4 (Odds 1.8)
Krejcikova Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.35)

Swiatek
Reached the 4th round where she lost to Svitolina After losing 3 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £5.26 giving a profit of £2.54
Sabalenka
Reached the Semifinals where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 5 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.43 giving a loss of £3.57
Rybakina
Reached the quarter finals were she lost to Jabeur. After 4 losing lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.41 giving a loss of £2.59
Pegula
Reached the Quarter finals where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 4 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £1.32 giving a loss of £2.68
Garcia
Reached the 3rd round where she lost to Bouzkova. After losing 2 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won 96p giving a loss of £1.04
Jabeur
Reached the final where she lost to Vondrousova. After losing 6 lay bets at £1.00 each we would have won £2.00 giving a loss of £4.00
Gauff
Lost in the 1st round to Kenin. We would have won £2.94.
Sakkari
Lost in the 1st round to Kostyuk. We would have won £2.78
Kvitova
Reached the 4th Round where she lost to Jabeur. After losing 3 lay bets of £1.00 each we would have won £1.25 giving a loss of 1.75
Krejcikova
Reached the 2nd round where she lost to Andreeva. After just 1 losing lay bet of £1.00 we would have won £2.86 giving a profit of £1.86

Conclusion.


We would have lost £5.51 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

2022

Top 10 seeds

Swiatek – Lost in Round 3 (Odds 1.2) – P/L £3.00
Kontaveit – Lost in Round 2 (Odds 1.50) – P/L £1.00
Jabeur – Reached the Final (Odds 1.83) – P/L -£4.80
Badosa – Reached the 4th Round (Odds 3.4) – P/L -£2.58
Sakkari – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.20) – P/L £3.00
Pliskova – Reached the 2nd round (Odds 1.71) – P/L £0.41
Collins – Lost in the 1st Round (Odds 1.79) – P/L £1.27
Pegula – Reached the 3rd Round (Odds 1.57) – P/L -£0.25
Mugurusa – Lost in the 1st round (Odds 1.25) – P/L £4.00
Raducanu Reached the 2nd Round (Odds 1.70) – P/L £0.43

Conclusion

We would have Won £5.48 over the whole tournament this year if we had laid each of the top 10 seeds to the end.

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 4th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


With a profit down to £5.01 today just 1 selection was tipped

Willowbank ran in the 8:15 at Lingfield last night

Willowbank placed 3rd

Profit is Plummeting and now stands at £3.78 for the month

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 3rd June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


With a profit of £8.61 today saw 3 selections run

First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5)
Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.

Gutsy Girl (3rd)

Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0)
Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5)
S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th

Valkyrian (7th)

With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5)
By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.

Coin Power (8th)


Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won.
The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time.
Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 2nd June – The Results

Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.


Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening.
Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1
Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time
A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61

S.P. as you can see was 3/1
Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 1st June – The Results

Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.

As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.

Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1

The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1
£5.00 / (7.00 – 1)

By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.

Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.

As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.

Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00

As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50

My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.

I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit.
If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows

Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00
Stake 36p
Lost P/L -36p
Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00
Stake 50p
Lost P/L -50p
Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5
Stake 77p
Won P/L £5.01
Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5
stake £1.11
Won P/L 4.99

Total P/L £9.14

OLBG Accas Are they Profitable? Day 1 (01/01/23)

OLBG (Online Bookmaker Guide) produce on a daily basis the accumulated tips from the best performing tipsters on the site and publish them as viable accumulator bets. This post will list and and publish the profits or losses of these bets over the Month

First up is the “Earlybird Multisport Acca” which is available from 7am onwards
Jan 1st 2023

Result
Earlybird Multisport Acca
Lost14:00Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa👎1.67
Won15:50Wrappedupinmay 3:50 Exeter👍1.33
Lost18:00PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles👎1.91
Won18:00DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions👍1.42
Lost08:15Sydney Sixers Brisbane Heat vs Sydney Sixers👎1.67
Won09:00Magda Linette to win 2 – 0 Magda Linette vs Zhibek Kulambayeva👍1.20
 Available: 07:00 daily
This ACCA lost

 Advised at 07:00 at odds of 12.02

Next Acca of the day is the Racing Each Way Lucky 15 which is available from 10am each day

ResultEach Way Lucky 15
Lost14:16Recorwoman 2:16 Southwell👎12.00
Lost15:00Maid Of Houxty 3:00 Catterick👎7.00
Lost15:45Thunder 3:45 Fairyhouse👎34.00
Lost17:26Brandy Station 5:26 Southwell👎12.00
 Available: 10:00 daily
Lost

 Advised at 10:00 at odds of 37128.00

A cheeky little racing Double is the next acca to be published and is supposed to be available to view from 11 am but today (1st Jan 2023) it appeared at 10:30 and was as follows

ResultRacing Double
Lost13:20Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham👎2.75
Lost15:00Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick👎2.50
 Available: 11:00 daily
Lost

 Advised at 10:30 at odds of 6.86

The racing four fold is usually available at 12:00 so it could be a bit frantic to get the bets on if the first race is close to midday. OLBG comensate for this by publishing the acca early so its best to have notifications set to on and have the app downloaded to your phone. More on this at the end of todays post.

ResultRacing 4-Fold
Won12:10Weveallbeencaught 12:10 Cheltenham👍2.00
Lost12:55Annie Magic 12:55 Exeter👎2.20
Lost13:20Thunder Rock 1:20 Cheltenham👎2.75
Lost15:00Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick👎2.50
 Available: 12:00 daily
Lost

 Advised at 11:00 at odds of 28.89

13:00 brings us the daily Multisport Acca which is similar to the EarlyBird Multi Sport Acca

ResultDaily Multisport Acca
Won15:56Manaafith 3:56 Southwell1.50
Lost18:00WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders1.75
Lost18:00PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles1.95
Won14:00Monaco Monaco v Brest1.45
Lost14:00Tottenham Tottenham v Aston Villa1.67
Lost15:00Tom Creen 3:00 Catterick2.75
 Available: 13:00 daily
Lost

 Advised at 13:00 at odds of 37.87

The popular Football four Fold is published at 13:30 at weekends and 17:00 on weekdays – here is todays

ResultFootball 4-Fold
Lost16:00Lyon Lyon v Clermont Foot1.53
Lost16:30Chelsea Nottm Forest v Chelsea1.60
Won15:00Plymouth Plymouth v Milton Keynes Dons1.70
Won15:00Millwall Millwall v Rotherham1.50
 Available: 17:00 weekdays | 13:30 weekend
Lost

 Advised at 13:30 at odds of 6.20

ResultUS Sports Acca
Lost21:05SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders1.91
Lost18:00WAS Commanders CLE Browns @ WAS Commanders1.80
Lost18:00PHI Eagles -5.50 NO Saints @ PHI Eagles1.95
Won18:00MIA Dolphins +2.50 MIA Dolphins @ NE Patriots2.05
Won18:00DET Lions CHI Bears @ DET Lions1.44
Won18:00NY Giants IND Colts @ NY Giants1.44
 Available: 16:30 daily
Lost

 Advised at 16:30 at odds of 28.50

ResultEvening Multisport Acca
Lost21:05SF 49ers -9.50 SF 49ers @ LV Raiders1.91
Won21:25GB Packers MIN Vikings @ GB Packers1.60
Lost01:10MIL Bucks WAS Wizards @ MIL Bucks1.55
Won01:10MEM Grizzlies SAC Kings @ MEM Grizzlies1.59
Lost19:45Draw or PSG Lens v PSG1.33
Lost19:45Gerwyn Price Gerwyn Price vs Gabriel Clemens1.80
 Available: 18:00 daily
Lost

 Advised at 18:00 at odds of 15.67

The outcome for the first day of the study is not a good one! None of the straight Accas came anywhere near and the lucky 15 did not even have a place

If we set our stake at £1.00 for accas and 10p e/w lucky 15 then we would be £10 down so far

Should Bookmakers “Tipsters” be taken seriously

I have been meaning to write this post for over a week after following Betfairs’ tipsters one evening on the football. Betfair proudly promoted their football tipsters under the banner “Thursday Football Cheat Sheet: All The Best Bets In One Place” Was this the best bets for them or the punters? What happened will shock you.
On the 3rd of November Genk hosted West Ham and Betfair is quoted at saying “West Ham have won all three of their UEL games so far and are a decent bet to maintain that winning streak” Kevin Hatchard then goes on to to say that Genk has only won one of their last 4 home matches, he failed to mention the fact that they (Gent) were victorious over Rapid Vienna away who in turn went on to beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1. I feel that these two bits of information should have been included in his write-up. He also hinted that a “Win to Nil” for a “Chunky” 3.85 was a sensible play but given the information above would make this financial suicide. Hatchard’s advised bet was “Back West Ham to win” at 2.08. With the information that he gave alone a more sensible bet of over 2.5 goals might have been more prudent. Final score 2-2

Next tipster given lip service by Betfair was Frank Monkhouse who in my opinion was actually trying to talk himself out of his advised bet of “Back Rangers at 1.95” when they travelled to Brondby. I quote
“Rangers look shaky in defence and conceded the first goal at the weekend again” also “At Ibrox, Rangers struggled to beat the 10 men of Hibs, managed only a draw against Hearts after passing up several goalscoring opertunities, then battled back from two goals down to rescue a point against the Dons.” Does this really sound like a man who has confidence in a Rangers team? Perhaps not!!
Final Score 1-1 with Brondby being on the score sheet first (Albeit from an own goal from Rangers ) From his write up Brondby scoring first might have been better advice!!
Dan Finch was tasked with the Tottenham v Vitesse game in the UEFA Europa Conferance League that same evening and proceded to ramble on about the abilities of the new Spurs manager, Conte. An assumption that Conte would “likely switch to playing with 3 central defenders to help shore up a backline that has conceded in 11 of their last 12 games” was his total assertion that his advised bet of Tottenham to Win to Nil would come to fruition. He failed to mention one vital fact that Vitesse have scored in every single UEC game. Final score was 3-2 and a brief mention that over 2.5 goals was priced at 1.71 and a home win and over 2.5 goals increased this price to 1.95. Having spent just 3 minutes looking up Vitesse’s scoring ability I would never have backed a win to nil result at odds of 2.1

Kevin Hatchard was back in the limelight for the Leicester City game against Spartak Moscow and wile I agree with him that there was little value at backing Leicester to win at match odds of 1.33 he went on to say “we can boost that price to a much healthier 2.64if we back Leicester to win and both teams to score. Four of Leicester’s last 5 victories in ALL competitions have seen both teams find the net” What he failed to mention is that in the Europa League Leicester have achieved this just Twice. Having said this however this bet out of all the ones advised so far is the one with most credibility as one of these occasions was in fact the previous meeting of these two teams where Leicester won 3-2 in Moscow.
Final score 1-1
In the final advised bet on the “cheat sheet” Dan Finch yet again rambled on about managers and not the teams ability to score or not as his advised bet of both teams to score in the Roma v Bodo/Glimt game should perhaps have included the fact that the Norwegian side are actually league leaders at home in the Eliteserien to give more weight to the advise given. This bet however was the only one to win at odds of 1.83 as the final score was 2-2

To summarise only 1 out of these 5 advised bets came in I feel that if more information had been forthcoming as to the actual relevancy of the individual advice three of these bets would have been discounted out of hand

Final Score
Betfair 4 Punters 1