betting – Betornot

Betting Insights: Analyzing Provisional Odds for Winners

Yesterday I showed you how to create a basic query in TSMs’ Selection Hunter to find some likely winners using the back test mode to discover any trends and it came up with the following 3 horses
The selections are
13:50 Stage Star
14:25 Copperhead
15:00 Sunray Shadow.

If you missed it you can read the post here

13:50 Stage Star
Stage Star met the provisional odds criteria of between 2.00 and 2.99 but went off at a BSP of 3.21. Our conditions of placing a bet with betangel were that the BSP had to be between 2.00 and 2.99 for the software to trigger. 3.21 was out of our range at 3.21 so no bet was made.

Stage Star only managed 4th out of 5

14:25 Copperhead
Joe Tizzards’ Copperhead also qualified as the provisional odds were posted as 2.85 but again the BSP was outside of the criteria and went off at 3.5 giving us another miss fire from Betangel.
Copperhead Won by 14 lengths!!!

15:00 Sunray Shadow
The final selection was the Skelton trained and ridden Sunray Shadow who’s Provisional odds were posted at 2.5. Winning by a length and a 1/4 the BSP was well within the range at 2.23 and Betangel Fired the bet in 10 seconds before post time catching 2.25

Summary
2 of the 3 selections went off at odds outside the criteria one of them winning but alas one losing
2 of the 3 went off as favourites despite all 3 being ranked as provisional favourite.
Betangel fired just one bet and this returned 125% ROI
Given the strike rate of the criteria when back tested (68%) 2 actual winners from our query seemed to tentatively back this trend.

Cautionary note
While this was a completely genuine test run you should not go out and back every Aintree runner with a BSP of between 2.0 and 2.99 even though I back tested over a period of nearly 2 years results you should always do as much research as you can and start with stakes that you can afford to lose.

Build your bank steadily Racing is not going to finish tommorrow!!!

The staking Machine software has limited use for free but If you want to take advantage of the Selection Hunter you will need to pay – It only costs £24 for 1 year – Twenty Four!! this is not a typo and can be paid via paypal
That’s only 2 quid a month and if you had backed Sunray Shadow for a quid you would have made over 1/2 a months subscription already.

Timeform 5* selections for 8th June 2024

Timeform is a respected and well followed source of racing form and they rate each horse for each race by using a star rating. You may have read my post on using this rating system to pick your horses for the ITV 7 well what if you were to back each 5 star rated horse in every race for a day.
Below is a PDF of the 5 star Runners for 8th June 2024 and how they faired. The figures are based upon the ISP (Industry Starting Price) and the stakes reflect a £5.00 profit should the horse win. It is worth noting that at least one of these selections (Billyb) was available at odds greater than the starting price as I actually backed it at odds of 4.50 at 11am that morning.

08-june-2024-timeform-5-star-selections Download

If you had backed each 5 star rated horse that ran on this day to a £1.00 level stake you would have got a profit of £3.87 which is a 10.18% ROI (Return on Investment)
If you had backed them as I do to a £5.00 target profit then you would have a £24.93 profit but the stakes involved are greater! My total stakes for all races would have been £117.94 for that £24.93 profit but it is still a 21% ROI
After a quick analysis of the results there were a total of 38 runners of which 15 won which is a 39.5% strike rate.
More interestingly is the fact that if you had backed the horses which ran in just the handicap races then of the 31 handicap races run 27 actuall ran of which 12 won.
This gave a profit of £12.41 to level £1.00 stakes giving a 46% ROI. Staking the horses to a £5.00 target profit gave a profit of £32.52 for a total of £58.79 stake money yielding a 55.3% ROI.
This is just 1 days analysis but it seems that it may be worth pursuing further.

timeforms-5-star-rated-horses Download

The above file can be downloaded so you can do your own analysis

More on this to come
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My ITV 7 8th June 2024

Today I have backed each of my ITV 7 selections at available odds for a target profit of £5.00 for each winner. Each selection is timeform’s 5 star rated horse for that race
The first one is Maw Lam in the 14:05 at Beverley

Backed for a Stake of £1.67 at odds of 4.0

Next is Can’t Beat History in the 14:15 at Bangor-on-Dee

Backed for a stake of £1.42 at odds of 4.50 This I have backed with Coral as they are offering BOG on all of their races today

Number 3 on the list is Divina Grace in the 14:25 at Haydock.

This I have backed for a £2.00 stake at odds of 3.50

Fourth is at Beverley in the 14:40 with only 5 runners going to post at the time of writing the 5 star selection is Moving Force.

This is the shortest price of the 7 selections and is backed at 2.75 for £2.86

Race 5 is the 15:00 at Haydock 13 runners

Stake is £1.11 at odds of 5.50

6th on the ITV7 card is 15 minutes later in the 15:15 at Beverley with 14 runners going to post

£1.43 at odds of 4.50 would see a return of £6.44 giving a profit of £5.00 if the odds don’t drift.

The last to go on the card today is Ramazan in the 15:35 at Haydock an 11 runner stakes race.

I booboo’d on this one and had to put an extra 17p onto this to make the stake up to £1.00 at odds of 6.00

My total stake for this “event” is £11.49

Hugh Taylors Selections 7th June – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections

Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.

Yesterday Hugh had 2 selections, both at Thirsk and the first was a non runner. Miss Bodacious was tipped to win the 3:38 but was withdrawn
The second Lord Abama ran in the 4:40 and was advised at 11/2 (6.5)
I backed it late with a stake of £1.81 at S.P. to win £5.00 at the available odds 11/4 (3.75)
My Profit for the month before this bet stood at £11.30
Lord Abama won at an S.P. of 4/1 (5.0)

This gave me an additional profit of £2.24 over my £5.00 target figure

My total profit for the month now stands at £18.54

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 6th June

What a couple of days!!
Needed a puncture repaired yesterday on my wife’s car so was only able to post the results but did manage to get the bets on and today I was caught up in that disaster area called Oxford with no way round it as my last delivery this morning was in Bicester. So I am sat with a great big Gin and Tonic
This post will serve as both information and results
Wednesday saw a good winner in Phoenix Passion yielding a £6.75 profit giving an overall profit for the month of £7.36.

Hugh Taylor tipped 3 horses yesterday and the same format for my bets remains the same with the exception of Half Moon Rising which runs in the 5:10 at Haydock and is first to run and is an e/w bet. For this I worked out the stake needed for the £5.00 profit and simply did an e/w bet at S.P doubling the stake so to speak.
As I mentioned Half Moon Rising ran first at Haydock in the 5:10
Advised Odds were 28/1 (29.0)
By the time i was able to get a bet on the odds had dropped to 11/1 (12) so the stake was 45p E/W this being a total of 90p

I did think that this might have had a halfway chance as SkyBet were paying 4 places, should have known better but the odds did drift not as much to the advised price but to 18/1 (19.0)
Next on the card was Alpen Power running at Chelmsford in the 6:45 and I backed it for £1.50 at S.P. which means that the odds available must have been around 10/3 (4.33) from an advised price of 9/2

As you can see the price continued to shorten until post time
Finally and when I was on my way to Dagenham for my first delivery Divine Breath ran in the 8:15 also at Chelmsford. Backed at S.P. at odds relating to a £5.00 profit of 11/8 (2.38) down from advised odds of 2/1 (3.0)

The odds recovered a bit, not to the level of the advised price but enough to give me an extra £1.34 over my £5.00 target.
So another win yesterday has increased my Monthly profit to £11.30.

Next post will be Todays selections and bet amounts.

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 5th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed 3 ofHugh Taylors four selections at S.P. (one was a non-runner). Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

£3.78 was my profit before these bets went on and with the stakes used they took me into a loss before they ran.

First to run was Phoenix Passion in the 16:27 at Nottingham and It actually won!!

Backed with a stake 0f £3.07 at S.P. for a target profit of £5.00 at equivalent odds of 13/8 the S.P was in fact 11/5 giving an actual profit of £6.75, £1.75 more than if I had just backed it at the available odds at the time.

Second to run was Remaat backed at odds of 3/1 as SkyBet operated a BOG policy with this race.

Remaat came a close second as as you can see from the bet settlement the odds drifted out significantly to 15/2 at post time.

Third and Final runner was Miss Kubelik who in actual fact didnt even place but went off at odds of 5/1 (6.00) this was greater than the advised odds

So after a good win and 2 also rans my profit now stands at £7.36.

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 5th June

Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78
First selection to run today is

4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion
Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5)
Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63)
Stake £3.07
Result –

Second to run is

5:35 Kempton : Remaat
Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0)
Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0)
Stake £1.67
Result –

Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed

The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.

Fourth and Final Selection today is
7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik
Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5)
Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33)
Stake £1.50
Result –

Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 4th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit down to £5.01 today just 1 selection was tipped

Willowbank ran in the 8:15 at Lingfield last night

Profit is Plummeting and now stands at £3.78 for the month

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 3rd June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit of £8.61 today saw 3 selections run

First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5)
Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.

Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0)
Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5)
S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th

With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5)
By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.

Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won.
The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time.
Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 2nd June – The Results

Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening.
Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1
Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time
A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61

S.P. as you can see was 3/1
Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍