sports-betting – Betornot

Betting Insights: Analyzing Provisional Odds for Winners

Yesterday I showed you how to create a basic query in TSMs’ Selection Hunter to find some likely winners using the back test mode to discover any trends and it came up with the following 3 horses
The selections are
13:50 Stage Star
14:25 Copperhead
15:00 Sunray Shadow.

If you missed it you can read the post here

13:50 Stage Star
Stage Star met the provisional odds criteria of between 2.00 and 2.99 but went off at a BSP of 3.21. Our conditions of placing a bet with betangel were that the BSP had to be between 2.00 and 2.99 for the software to trigger. 3.21 was out of our range at 3.21 so no bet was made.

Stage Star only managed 4th out of 5

14:25 Copperhead
Joe Tizzards’ Copperhead also qualified as the provisional odds were posted as 2.85 but again the BSP was outside of the criteria and went off at 3.5 giving us another miss fire from Betangel.
Copperhead Won by 14 lengths!!!

15:00 Sunray Shadow
The final selection was the Skelton trained and ridden Sunray Shadow who’s Provisional odds were posted at 2.5. Winning by a length and a 1/4 the BSP was well within the range at 2.23 and Betangel Fired the bet in 10 seconds before post time catching 2.25

Summary
2 of the 3 selections went off at odds outside the criteria one of them winning but alas one losing
2 of the 3 went off as favourites despite all 3 being ranked as provisional favourite.
Betangel fired just one bet and this returned 125% ROI
Given the strike rate of the criteria when back tested (68%) 2 actual winners from our query seemed to tentatively back this trend.

Cautionary note
While this was a completely genuine test run you should not go out and back every Aintree runner with a BSP of between 2.0 and 2.99 even though I back tested over a period of nearly 2 years results you should always do as much research as you can and start with stakes that you can afford to lose.

Build your bank steadily Racing is not going to finish tommorrow!!!

The staking Machine software has limited use for free but If you want to take advantage of the Selection Hunter you will need to pay – It only costs £24 for 1 year – Twenty Four!! this is not a typo and can be paid via paypal
That’s only 2 quid a month and if you had backed Sunray Shadow for a quid you would have made over 1/2 a months subscription already.

My ITV 7 8th June 2024

Today I have backed each of my ITV 7 selections at available odds for a target profit of £5.00 for each winner. Each selection is timeform’s 5 star rated horse for that race
The first one is Maw Lam in the 14:05 at Beverley

Backed for a Stake of £1.67 at odds of 4.0

Next is Can’t Beat History in the 14:15 at Bangor-on-Dee

Backed for a stake of £1.42 at odds of 4.50 This I have backed with Coral as they are offering BOG on all of their races today

Number 3 on the list is Divina Grace in the 14:25 at Haydock.

This I have backed for a £2.00 stake at odds of 3.50

Fourth is at Beverley in the 14:40 with only 5 runners going to post at the time of writing the 5 star selection is Moving Force.

This is the shortest price of the 7 selections and is backed at 2.75 for £2.86

Race 5 is the 15:00 at Haydock 13 runners

Stake is £1.11 at odds of 5.50

6th on the ITV7 card is 15 minutes later in the 15:15 at Beverley with 14 runners going to post

£1.43 at odds of 4.50 would see a return of £6.44 giving a profit of £5.00 if the odds don’t drift.

The last to go on the card today is Ramazan in the 15:35 at Haydock an 11 runner stakes race.

I booboo’d on this one and had to put an extra 17p onto this to make the stake up to £1.00 at odds of 6.00

My total stake for this “event” is £11.49

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 6th June

What a couple of days!!
Needed a puncture repaired yesterday on my wife’s car so was only able to post the results but did manage to get the bets on and today I was caught up in that disaster area called Oxford with no way round it as my last delivery this morning was in Bicester. So I am sat with a great big Gin and Tonic
This post will serve as both information and results
Wednesday saw a good winner in Phoenix Passion yielding a £6.75 profit giving an overall profit for the month of £7.36.

Hugh Taylor tipped 3 horses yesterday and the same format for my bets remains the same with the exception of Half Moon Rising which runs in the 5:10 at Haydock and is first to run and is an e/w bet. For this I worked out the stake needed for the £5.00 profit and simply did an e/w bet at S.P doubling the stake so to speak.
As I mentioned Half Moon Rising ran first at Haydock in the 5:10
Advised Odds were 28/1 (29.0)
By the time i was able to get a bet on the odds had dropped to 11/1 (12) so the stake was 45p E/W this being a total of 90p

I did think that this might have had a halfway chance as SkyBet were paying 4 places, should have known better but the odds did drift not as much to the advised price but to 18/1 (19.0)
Next on the card was Alpen Power running at Chelmsford in the 6:45 and I backed it for £1.50 at S.P. which means that the odds available must have been around 10/3 (4.33) from an advised price of 9/2

As you can see the price continued to shorten until post time
Finally and when I was on my way to Dagenham for my first delivery Divine Breath ran in the 8:15 also at Chelmsford. Backed at S.P. at odds relating to a £5.00 profit of 11/8 (2.38) down from advised odds of 2/1 (3.0)

The odds recovered a bit, not to the level of the advised price but enough to give me an extra £1.34 over my £5.00 target.
So another win yesterday has increased my Monthly profit to £11.30.

Next post will be Todays selections and bet amounts.

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 5th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed 3 ofHugh Taylors four selections at S.P. (one was a non-runner). Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

£3.78 was my profit before these bets went on and with the stakes used they took me into a loss before they ran.

First to run was Phoenix Passion in the 16:27 at Nottingham and It actually won!!

Backed with a stake 0f £3.07 at S.P. for a target profit of £5.00 at equivalent odds of 13/8 the S.P was in fact 11/5 giving an actual profit of £6.75, £1.75 more than if I had just backed it at the available odds at the time.

Second to run was Remaat backed at odds of 3/1 as SkyBet operated a BOG policy with this race.

Remaat came a close second as as you can see from the bet settlement the odds drifted out significantly to 15/2 at post time.

Third and Final runner was Miss Kubelik who in actual fact didnt even place but went off at odds of 5/1 (6.00) this was greater than the advised odds

So after a good win and 2 also rans my profit now stands at £7.36.

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 5th June

Further to my post on Bookies and Tipsters I will be following Hugh Taylors Tips and Backing each one for a £5.00 Profit with SkyBet. Not at the advised odds but at whatever odds are available at the time but because Skybet like to pay out on extra places and offer few races with Best Odds Guaranteed I will be backing them at SP with a stake that will give a £5.00 profit at the odds given at the time.

Four selections today and going into the 5th day with a profit of £3.78
First selection to run today is

4:27 Nottingham : Phoenix Passion
Advised Odds 5/2 (3.5)
Odds available at 10:00 : 13/8 (2.63)
Stake £3.07
Result –

Second to run is

5:35 Kempton : Remaat
Advised Odds 11/1 (12.0)
Odds available at 10:00 : 3/1 (4.0)
Stake £1.67
Result –

Odds of 3/1 taken as SkyBet are offering Best Odds Guaranteed

The third Selection was City House in 7:15 at Kempton but has been withdrawn and is a non-runner.

Fourth and Final Selection today is
7:45 Kempton : Miss Kubelik
Advised Odds 9/2 (5.5)
Odds available at 10.00 10/3 (4.33)
Stake £1.50
Result –

Good Luck all – need it – these bets take me into a Loss state 😂

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 4th June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit down to £5.01 today just 1 selection was tipped

Willowbank ran in the 8:15 at Lingfield last night

Profit is Plummeting and now stands at £3.78 for the month

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 3rd June – The Results

Yesterday I backed Hugh Taylors 3 selections at S.P. Here’s what happened (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

With a profit of £8.61 today saw 3 selections run

First to run was Gutsy Girl which was advised at odds of 4/1 (5.0) I backed it at 11:45 at S.P but the odds available then was 5/2 (3.5)
Unfortunately it could only manage 3rd place.

Profit is Plummeting and the next to run was Valkyrian in the 8:45 at Windsor Advised at Publication at 16/1 (17.0)
Stake was 67p at S.P. as available odds had halved to 15/2 (8.5)
S.P. Odds recovered to 12/1 (13.0) which would have been nice if it had won instead of coming 7th

With another 67p knocked off the profit the last runner on Hughs list was Coin Power. Advised at odds of 10/1 (11.0) by the time I got my 91p on at 11:45 the odds had dropped to 11/2 (6.5)
By Post time the S.P. was 7/1 so again disappointing not to have surpassed advised odds but had it of won instead of coming 8th then I would have a profit of £6.37 instead of my target fiver.

Numerous people have now pointed out to me that S.P. is a poor bet and I agree but in all of the runners so far this month all have been above the odds available at the time the bet was struck so that with any other bookie than SkyBet Best Odds Guaranteed would have been applicable and instead of backing at S.P. I would have taken the offered odds for my Guaranteed fiver if it won.
The sole purpose of this study if you like is to try and make people see that, yes the bookies decimate the odds to capitalize on the faithful which to my mind is despicable, but the odds can and do recover sometimes to a mark greater than the advised price at publication time.
Its a good job Hugh had a couple of winners Saturday because my Profit is now down to £5.03

Hugh Taylor – Don’t be in a Rush To Back His Selections 2nd June – The Results

Today I backed Hugh Taylors sole selection at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

Todays Selection was Cargin Bhui which ran at Hamilton this evening.
Advised odds were 11/4 but just 1 hour later those odds had been cut to 2/1
Working to a profit of £5.00 per winner I staked £2.50 to Win at S.P. in the hope that the odds drifted towards post time
A very close 2nd place has reduced my June Profit to £8.61

S.P. as you can see was 3/1
Another selection where S.P. was greater than the advised odds 👍

Hugh Taylor – Dont be in a Rush To Back His Selections 1st June – The Results

Yesterday I backed all four of Hugh Taylors ATR racing tips but instead of clamoring to get my money on before the odds disappeared I simply backed them at S.P. (If you have just happened upon this post and are thinking why would I back a horse at SP when the price is steaming in please read the post I did on researching his April Selections the link is immediately below and will open in a new tab)

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

First in the List was Sea of Thieves in the 2:00 at Epsom Downs at an advised price at publication of 14/1. This was published at 9:11 and by 10:30 the odds were 9/1. I backed this at S.P. for 56p which would have given me £5.00 profit if the odds stayed at 9/1 or a bonus amount if the odds drifted and by some miracle the horse won.

As you can see from the settled bet that the price did drift, not to the advised price but close and if it had won would have given a profit of £6.72 instead of the £5.00 at the 9/1 price.

Second to run was Billy Webster in the 3:10 again at Epsom. Published at 9:24 at advised odds of 10/1. I again backed this at S.P. for a stake of 83p as the odds available at 10:30 were down to 6/1

The calculation for these bets is simple Target profit / Decimal odds -1
£5.00 / (7.00 – 1)

By Post Time the odds had drifted to 14/1 which would have given a profit of £11.62 if it had won.

Taylors next selection to run was also at Epsom and he tipped Relentless Voyager in the 5:15 at an advised price of 13/2 (7.5) at the publication time of 9:03. By 10:30 these odds had sunk to 4/1 or 5.0 in decimal. Backed at S.P. for a stake of £1.00 to reap a £5.00 profit if the odds didn’t sink further.

As you can see the odds drifted out to 7/1 (8.0) at post time and the horse won giving a profit of £7.00 instead of the £5.00 target figure.

Taylors fourth and final runner was at Doncaster in the 6:15 and was published on the ATR website at 09:39. Wild Waves price was advised at 9/2 (5.50) at this time and an hour later was a mere 5/2 (3.50) on Sky Bet. Backed at S.P. for a £2.00 stake my target profit if the odds didn’t dip below this price and if the horse won would again be £5.00

As you can see from my settled bet slip This horse also won at 11/4 (3.75) and while the odds didn’t reach those of the advised price by a long chalk they did drift slightly from the 3.50 giving me a profit of £5.50

My Total profit from these four bets ended up at £11.11 from a total of £4.39 staked! Better than being poked in the eye with a sharp stick I think.

I know that if I had used another bookmaker that offered BOG then I would have had guaranteed odds and could have taken the price offered without fear of the odds dipping some more. As it is if I had taken the prices offered by SkyBet at the time of striking the bets then my profit would have been £8.61 – £2.50 less than my actual profit.
If you had used the same staking method AND had been able to get the ADVISED prices then the profit would have been as follows

Sea of Thieves Advised odds 15.00
Stake 36p
Lost P/L -36p
Billy Webster Advised odds 11.00
Stake 50p
Lost P/L -50p
Relentless Voyager Advised odds 7.5
Stake 77p
Won P/L £5.01
Wild Waves Advised odds 5.5
stake £1.11
Won P/L 4.99

Total P/L £9.14

Racing Tipsters and Bookies.

I recently watched a youtube video by Caan Berry, who, quite accurately, put forward a case for not backing online tipsters as the odds very quickly diminished as soon as or even before the tip was published online. Conspiracy theorists would have you believe that there may be some collusion between tipsters and bookies that would enable bookies to make a bigger margin on the tips that lose and perhaps cutting the online platform that published them a bigger affiliate payout. There is no doubt that odds do disappear very quickly but in the bigger picture of racing as a whole to keep the odds low on a horse just because a tipster tipped that horse could prove very expensive for bookies if another horse with better ability and was being backed towards the start of the race stayed at the bigger odds and went on to win. Bookies are scaredy cats, money going onto other horses will lower their odds, its a fact!
It is true that if a tipster has a big and loyal following then those punters will undoubtably blind bet on the selection for fear of the odds dropping even more, this is bonanza time for the bookies. They take pots of cash at crap odds on a horse trying not to split their sides laughing at all the punters doing their bank blindly. What is a little more concerning is that on some bookies sites “Best Odds Guaranteed” doesn’t kick in until an hour or more after the tip is published so they don’t have to payout at the bigger price if the odds drift.
That’s the conspiracy part over now I will look at some facts and as Caan Berry singled out Hugh Taylor of At The Races Website I will look at his results from April 2024 (His latest complete results available).

In April Hugh Taylor had 65 tips in total claiming a 30.09 point profit for the month at advised odds and stakes. Of these 65 tips 3 were E/W tips and for the purposes of this post I am going to discount them as I personally rarely back E/W bets. Many of you reading this may disagree, this is your choice and you could apply the same staking method that I will outline in this post to all of his tips, that is your own personal possible course of action.
The purpose of this post is not to condemn any one party whether it is Taylor himself the website for misleading information or the bookies for offering criminal odds, it is to analyze the timings of the tips published and the reaction of the markets to these tips and most importantly what the actual SP of the tip was at the off.
To make this a fair study I am going to stake each tip with a profit if wins of £5.00 on the advised odds, Industry SP and the Betfair exchange SP. I know that the minimum bet on the exchange is now £1.00 and the stakes you will see on many of these selections is way lower than that but these lower stakes are possible if you use software that allows this such as bet angel ( I will put a link to this at the bottom of the post)

To achieve a level profit target figure the calculation is simple.

Stake = Target / (Odds-1)

If we look at Taylors first tip of the month which was Twilight Madness in the 16:05 at Kempton on 1st April he advised odds of 12.0 (11/1) so the stake for this bet would be

Stake = 5 /(12-1) = 45p
Unfortunately I have no way of knowing how far the odds dropped just after tip publication but the horse did go off at the same odds and on the exchange the BSP was 15.67. Figures courtesy of Timeform who publishes these figures for reference purposes)
The horse lost of course (Last actually) so our losses would have been
Tip publication Time (If actually available) -45p
Bookmakers SP -45p
Betfair exchange SP -34p.
As you can see we would be better off by 11p if we had used the excchange to place our bet.
The following excel sheet lists all of Hugh Taylors tips for April except for the E/W bets.

Of the 62 remaining tips after discounting the E/W bets you can see that a total of 15 won and using the staking method outlined above the profit to the advised odds of just £6.01. If we had backed the same horses at the industry S.P. you can see that we would have won nearly twice as much and better yet before commission is taken from the exchange bets three times as much. So, there is a case for backing Taylors tips. He has a strike rate of about 25% but the profits are not breathtaking.

Conclusion.
Hugh Taylors tips are for free, there is no subscription to pay, and if you keep your stakes to a manageable level there is no reason why you shouldnt have a couple of bets each day.
There is however another option – we can lay these tips and then back them just before post time!

We know that the bookies lower the odds just after publication and that perhaps the more savvy amongst us back them on the exchange to get a closer price to advised odds than backing them at the bookmaker. This acts to cause the exchange market to react in the same way as the bookies price lowering and the exchange market starts to reflect the industry prices more closely. If you look at the spreadsheet above you will notice that in most of the tips the exchange S.P. is quite a few ticks higher than even the advised price earlier in the day. This means that there is a possibility of a viable lay to back trade opportunity here.

Follow for his June selections and results