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Ladbrokes Premier League Treble . Leicester, Aston Villa and Brighton all to Win 9/1 (was 8/1)

With the Premier League back in action this weekend the bookies are eager to make more profit off the unsuspecting punter and today’s focus is on the ever greedy Ladbrokes and their Premier League Treble.
Leicester are at home to Wolves this afternoon and with fans being allowed back into stadiums the home side advantage must be taken into consideration and with each new season brings the uncertainty of lack of stats. Looking at last season’s last 5 games for these teams Leicester won 3 out of the 5 with 2 being away to Man Utd and Chelsea with the other win at home against the mighty Man City. These two sides last met on 8 Nov where the winning goal was a 15th minute penalty by Vardy. Wolverhampton are full of uncertainty with a new manager in the saddle and a tentative vote on the side of Leicester goes to this Match.
The next game in the treble is the newly promoted Watford hosting Aston Villa and who would have thought Brentford would have given Arsenal a spanking last night, could the same happen this afternoon with these two teams? I have Traore in my VirginBet fives team and really hope he scores a hat-trick. Watford scored in every home game last season bar one which was against Cardiff in December. Aston Villa, last season, came out on a winning mission being victorious in all four of their opening games scoring a total of 12 goals. Home side advantage may play a part in this game but on previous goal scoring ability and the loss of Grealish to Man City not withstanding another tentative vote goes to Aston Villa.
Brighton travel to Burnley today and this it would seem is likely to be the bogey match. Winning just 5 away games last season their start to the 20/21 season did not inspire confidence. This fixture in February ended 1-1 and ended goalless in their previous meeting to that. perhaps 2-2 might be a progressive step as home advantage with a full ground today may make the difference. Both of these sides were in danger of sinking into the Championship last season and my vote goes to a score draw
As with all these trebles better odds may be found elsewhere and the same odds can be got on smarkets and Betfair sportbook is offering 9.5 (17/2) unboosted.
This treble is a tricky one as there is no real recent form to reference and with all things being equal a max stake bet is out of the question but a sneaky quid may well be acceptable
Good luck with whatever you decide to do and please gamble responsibly

Simon Holt (Sporting Life Tipster) More In-depth study

Further to my previous blog post about the Sporting Life Recommended bets. Simon Holt (@SimonHolt3) had an outstanding May with his racing tips and this post is just about breaking down the figures into which category of race made the most points profit. His profit to advised odds for May was 41.3 points and was all flat racing tips over various distances and an even spread of handicap and Non-handicap races.
Starting with his Handicap race tips, he tipped horses in a total of 18 handicap races with 5 winning tips (28%) gaining 11.8 points profit at S.P. and 24.5 points profit at Advised Odds. If we drill this down further into race distances his profit was greatest when he tipped horses in 5f sprints, achieving 12 points profit from 2 winners out of 3 tips at advised odds in handicap races and 8.8 points from the same strike rate in Non-Handicap races. The tables below show the races in which he had success and those which failed!!

the whole spreadsheet can be downloaded by clicking the link below

simon-holtmay-statsDownload

William Hill Boosted Bet Raheem Sterling To Have Over 2 Shots On Target (90 Mins) – Was 9/2

With 3 goals to his name Raheem Sterling seems to have gone from a press induced no hoper case to a serious contender for the Golden Boot. It is true that his season at Manchester City did not match up to the hype given at the start of the season but he has replied to his critics with a resounding middle finger by becoming England’s top scorer in the European Championships. This bet is all about shots on target and while you might be suckered into the belief that shots on target are a better bet than actual goals you may be surprised at how few shots on target by individual players there are.
To begin with I will look at the Total shots on target recorded by England in the tournament so far

England v Croatia 1-0
There were a total of 8 shots AT goal in this game but only 2 were on target

England v Scotland 0-0
There were a total of 9 shots AT goal in this game but only 1 was on target

Czech Republic v England 0-1
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game but only 3 were on target

England v Germany 2-0
There were a total of 5 shots AT goal in this game and 4 of them were on Target

As you can see England have steadily improved their shooting accuracy but these figures show shots on target for the whole team not one player. Without taking anything away from Sterling as I think he is a star player in this England Squad, if we look at his season stats for Man City last season in the UEFA Champions League he averaged just 1.1 shot on target. If you couple this with the assumption that The Czech Republic will see him as the biggest threat to their goal I cannot see him having many chances and will in inimitable Sterling style wait for his given opportunity and score when they least expect it
In my opinion to expect 3 shots on target from any player in this tournament in a single game is a bit of a stretch and is worth considerably more than a measly 6/1 (7.0)

William Hill Cross Match Special “Czech Republic, Denmark, Ukraine & England All To Score 90 Mins – Was 13/5”

William Hill Boast “Nothing Beats William Hill when it comes to betting on football”
This I suppose can be taken in different contexts and being a devout cynic of bookmakers in general I tend to be suspicious when they offer such low odds (4.33) on such a preposterous bet – England to concede to the Ukraine – never have I heard such a thing.!!! but this is what you are betting on in effect.
Let’s have a look at the stats for the first of these games today

Czech Republic v Denmark
In their 4 previous games, Czech Republic has kept 2 clean sheets against Scotland and Netherlands winning both games 2-0. Denmark has on the other hand only 1 clean sheet. The Czech Republic has scored 5 goals in the tournament so far. Patrik Schik has 4 of these goals for the Czech Republic and could well be worth a punt at the Golden Boot. Denmark and Spain have scored the most goals this competition with 9 to their name in the normal 90 minutes of a game so this part of the bet may well see each team scoring in 90 minutes (BTTS odds with WH are 2.05! 2.14 are available on SBK (Smarkets Sportsbook))

Ukraine V England Kickoff at 8pm tonight and William Hill are offering odds of 2.25 for BTTS making a BTTS double 4.61!!! This is bigger than their boosted bet – Is it any wonder bookies are not trusted pillars of the community!!
England go into this game with a 100% clean sheet record and while 2-0 has been Englands biggest tally of goals in a game this bet is all about keeping the ball out of the net as far as William Hill are concerned. Ukraine have conceded goals in each of their Euro games and failing to score once against Austria.
In my humble opinion 3 out of these 4 teams will score but duty binds me not to bet on The Ukraine shattering England’s Clean sheet record but If you were to back this a BTTS double pays more than the boosted bet, and they are the same bet!!
Good Luck in what you decide.

Sporting Life Recommended Bets May Study

Sporting Life, the website, boasts a 3000+ pts profit over the last 17 years and an impressive 214 pts profit for May this year. I could do with a couple of hundred quid each month so let’s see how they did it. Sporting Life tips section is the place to find the Recommended bets and they have a fully checkable archive. In this post I am going to delve into the various sections of the May 2021 to find out who or what made the money and who or what let the side down.
Beginning with the racing section there are a total of 7 different “tipsters”, For instance Weekend view deals with just ante post bets for the coming weekend and “Punting Pointers” generally has a selection each day.

As this is going to be a long-winded affair, instead of having reams of information, I am going to put their results into an excel spreadsheet and make it available to view at your leisure or if you wish to contact me I can send it directly to you.
Each spreadsheet will contain the following information.
1. Date
2. Selection
3. Advised Odds
4. Advised Odds Profit/Loss
5. S.P. Odds
6. S.P. Odds Profit/Loss
7. Result
I am adding the S.P. data as these selections odds tend to shorten considerably from the tips publication point to the starting gate. With this we can identify the tipsters the bookies fear just like the good old days of “Pricewise”
First up is “Punting Pointers” who has an overall profit of 6.85 points from 76 bets at advised odds for the merry month of May. If you had backed these at S.P. then you would have lost 3.78 points. At £2.00 per point gives an advised monetary profit of £13.70 and at S.P. a monetary loss of £7.56. Not bad for a months fun, but it doesnt end there! Next for the 3rd degree is Weekend View

punting-poiners-may-statsDownload

Weekend View consists of Ante Post Bets for the coming weekend. Many people are wary of ante-post betting as it is an istant loss should the trainer withdraw his charge before final declarations. This said however the plus side is that there is often a much bigger price to be snaffled betting Ante Post. As with the punting pointers spreadsheet I will be including the S.P. results for the faint hearted who want to wait for race day.

weekend-view-may-statsDownload

Value Bets is the next “Tipster” and the advised bets are usually of a bigger price. Strangely though the advice is, more often than not, to place win bets and not E/W bets and more than one has placed at odds of more than 10/1. I have included in this spreadsheet the figures for backing each horse each/way and assumed the bookies paid 1/5 odds on a place. Doing this got a 1.3 point profit instead of a -6 point loss.

value-bet-may-statsDownload

With the general “Tipsters” analysed I will move onto the brave souls who actually put their name to their selections. It seems that one or two may well need to keep their money in their wallet while there is one who does well putting his money where his mouth is.
Fran Berry seems to be the Irish specialist and achieved a loss of 2.94 points in May to advised odds whereas backing the selections at starting price gave a loss of 13.12 points suggesting that Mr Berry is perhaps a bit of a “pricewise” and some more research might hit upon some tasty “Back to Lay” opportunities.

fran-berry-may-statsDownload

Moving on to the next tipster for no other reason than he is next on the list is Simon Holt. Simon Holt is the most successful tipster in may with a massive 41.3 point profit to advised odds. Starting Price profit is significantly lower at 16.67 points profit for May. Backing to lay is definitely an option but pointless when the man is in such good form!

simon-holtmay-statsDownload

As with everything racing, these figures should not and don’t reflect a gaurenteed profit each month and more research should be done before blindly punting good money onto bad horses. That said however, betting is fun as long as you stay within your limits. Simon Holt advised a total of 38 points which is just over £1.00 per day working to 1 point = £1.00 that to my mind is fun. If you start working to £10.00 = 1 point then things are a little more serious.

Just as a pointer to previous months Simon Holt had the following gains/losses
April -20.5pts
March -16.25
February +1.38
January +4
As you can see not life-changing but up over the year so far, but how many of you would have followed him into May betting £10/point, and how many of you would still be with him at £1/point.
I will be posting which type of race he and the others seem to do well at and which to avoid. Follow me so as not to miss it and other factual snippets to hopefully enable you not to give too much money to the blood-sucking bookies!!

Ladbrokes Early Kick-Off Treble, Leeds Utd , Rangers, and St Johnstone all to Win.

Boosted from 5.5 (9/2) to 6.5 (11/2) this lunchtime treble seems feasible at first sight. All the teams are above their opponents in their respective leagues. Leeds are playing Burnley away and Burnley are having a big winless spell at home having not won a game at home in the last 8 games. Leeds however have lost 9 times this season away from home with notable defeats at Brighton (2-0) and Crystal Palace (4-1). Most of their wins have come from playing teams in the lower half of the league. Burnley’s position at 15th owes much to their ability to draw games and save the point having reached that result 6 times at home this season. Perhaps this will be Leeds Utd’s first draw this season away from home. Leeds are 2.15 to win.
Top of the Scottish Premiership are Rangers who, at home have only conceded 4 goals all season. They host Aberdeen this lunchtime and seem quite invincible. The score in the reverse fixture was 0-1. Rangers have won 6 of their last 8 matches scoring 1st in 32 of their 37 league games. The stats on this game are of little consequence – If Rangers Lose today something is seriously wrong in Scottish football. Rangers are 1.25 to win.
St Johnstone is the third lunchtime fixture in this boosted treble and are playing Livingston at home and of the last 4 home games have won just 2, losing to Aberdeen and drawing 1-1 with Rangers. This does not however reflect their recent form over the last 8 games gaining 14 points from 8 matches relates to 1.75 points per game. Livingston’s recent 8 game form on the other hand is abysmal with only 4 points losing their last 3 away games to Hibs, Celtic, and Motherwell. St Johnstone are 2.25 to win at home.
In summary, Rangers have to be the banker in this trio there is a distinct possibility of Leeds drawing for the first time away this season and the odds don’t marry with Livingston’s recent form and I am a bit suspicious about St Johnstones odds being greater than evens!
Good Luck I whatever you decide
Ladbrokes won’t close my account but neither will they allow me to put even 5p on this bet. Bit childish really.

Ladbrokes Price Boost Newcastle v Man City – Man City to be leading after 15 minutes.

This price has been boosted to 4.33 from 4.00 – not very generous really but that’s #Ladbrokes for you. Anyway lets have a look at what chance there is that this bet will pay.
Manchester City have only scored 3 goals when playing away in the first 15 minutes of play. Newcastle have actually scored 4 in the same timeframe when at home. this is not looking like a good bet!
The 3 goals that Man City did score when playing away were
Arsenal 21st Feb -2 mins and that was the first and last goal
Burnley 3rd Feb – 3 mins – final score 0-2
West Brom 26th Jan – 6 mins – Final score 0-5
Newcastle have conceded 4 goals in the first 15 minutes 1 penalty,1 own Goal and 2 regular run of the mill.
Manchester City’s average goal time is 43 mins (N.B. This is NOT average time of first goal)
A safer bet might be that Man City will be leading at Half-Time as they have scored 18 goals in the first half playing away and only conceded 4!
Shame on you #Ladbrokes this bet should be boosted by a lot more than 0.33


Man City have only scored 3 goals in the first 15 minutes when playing away!!!

The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 5

The Soccer Saturday Price Boost this week is Bournemouth, Chelsea, and Leeds all to win Boosted from 7.0 to 10.0
The first match on the treble is a Championship clash between Hosts Bottom of the league Wycombe Wanderers and 4th placed Bournemouth. In form, Bournemouth have won all of their last 4 away games and 7 of their last league games only losing to Brentford at home last week. With Swansea and Barnsley both on level points with Bournemouth, Bournemouth need to win today to keep the others from stealing that all-important play-off spot. Wycombe have shown that even though they are flat bottom of the league they still have the ability when playing teams at the top of the league drawing against both Swansea and Watford at home. Generally, though they lose and by 2 goals when they do. The last time these two teams met Bournemouth won 1-0, and they have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 away matches. Bournemouth need to win!

Chelsea are hosting Fulham this evening and have a mixed bag of results at home having goalless draws against Manchester Utd and Brighton and a dreadful drubbing of 2-5 by West Bromwich Albion. with their only victory in the last 4 home games being against Everton which ended 2-0. Although I have said that if bookmakers put Fulham into a boosted Acca you should avoid it like the Chinese Bat Flu they have come out and Drawn against Arsenal and Crystal Palace, beaten Liverpool 0-1 and lost just one against Aston Villa in their last 4 away games. That said, Fulham have never beaten Chelsea and their last 2 trips to Stamford Bridge have both ended 2-0. Chelsea are hanging onto that last Champions League 4th place spot precariously, but aided by Leicester’s 1-1 draw against Southampton last night. A win this evening would still see them in 4th place but keeping that all-important 3 point buffer between them and West Ham. Chelsea Need To Win!

Leeds Utd travel to Brighton today in a game which is of vital importance to the hosts. Only 7 points separate Brighton from Fulham and a win for Brighton today would see them a little closer to safety. Leeds Utd have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away games and conceding goals in all of them. Their form over the last 8 games played has seen them win just 3 times drawn 3 times (twice Goalless) and losing to West Ham and Villa. Brighton’s Home record doesn’t read much better winning one drawing goalless against Everton and losing against Leicester and Crystal Palace. They have only beaten Southampton and Newcastle in their last 8 league games
As with every Soccer Saturday Price Boost, SkyBet offer 3 outcomes and this week they have offered this last game as the alternate options
Option 1
Bournemouth, Chelsea & Leeds all to win (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1
Option 2
Bournemouth & Chelsea to win & Brighton to draw with Leeds (was 6/1) Boosted to 9/1
Option 3
Bournemouth, Chelsea & Brighton all to win (was 4/1) Boosted to 6/1
My final £5.00 goes on
Option 1 £2.00
Option 2 £2.00
Option 3 £1.00


The Road to Cheltenham 2022 Week 7 Bet 4

Australian A League has become a bit of an obsession of late and today Melbourne City Hosted Newcastle United Jets. 17 minutes into the game and the odds finally reached 2.0 and I stuck my fiver on it. Newcastle, again, scored at the wrong end and 2 more Melbourne goals and 87 minutes Newcastle decided it was time to score in the right goal
A win is a win 😁